9 February 2024
The Roscongress Foundation prepared a report entitled ‘Carbon
Neutrality: Saving the Planet or an Economic Weapon?’ on the prospects for
managing greenhouse gas emissions to achieve the overall goals of combating
global warming.
Last year was the warmest year on record for global temperature tracking
since 1850. The global average temperature was 14.98°C, which is 0.17°C above
the previous record set in 2016. The continued rise in global temperatures is
pushing many countries to take stronger action to reduce emissions and achieve
carbon neutrality.
However, in the absence of a single internationally harmonized system of
transboundary emission control, individual states are implementing their own
schemes. They proceed from their economic and geopolitical interests, which may
conflict with the interests of other countries. For example, the EU’s border
carbon tax may become a new trade barrier for exports – there is a risk of
selective, non-transparent application of transboundary carbon regulation and
its transformation into a new form of economic competition.
Scientists estimate that to prevent the worst effects of climate change,
the increase in global temperature must be limited to 1.5°C above
pre-industrial levels. Keeping the rise in annual average temperature within
these limits is possible if the world achieves net zero emissions by around
2050.
The net-zero doctrine itself may not deliver the results claimed in
international agreements. However, without a net-zero orientation, the warming
will be even more severe and could amount to 2.6°C. In any case, mankind will
not abandon decarbonization plans in the coming years.
Russia does not yet have a mandatory carbon fee for businesses, but an
experiment is underway in Sakhalin Region to quota the amount of allowable
emissions. In addition, voluntary climate projects are being implemented to
monetize carbon units and achieve the targets stated in the national Climate
Doctrine. For example, in September 2023 in Vladivostok, the Roscongress
Foundation and the oil and gas chemical company Sibur agreed to transfer carbon
units to the Eastern Economic Forum to fully cover for the Forum’s carbon
footprint. Thus, thanks to Sibur’s climate projects, the EEF has become
Russia’s largest carbon-neutral economic Forum with confirmed international
verification.
Further development of such projects will be necessary to combat not only
climate change, but also the transitional risks from the decarbonization
measures being implemented at the global level. These risks are, in particular,
associated with a sharp increase in the costs of developing the global ‘green
agenda’ to the detriment of our own economic development.
The full text of the analytical report is published on the website of the Roscongress Foundation and on its Zen Channel.