Russia's Financial Sector Transformation: Preliminary Results

7 September 2022

Russia's Financial Sector Transformation: Preliminary Results

KEY CONCLUSIONS

The Russian banking sector coped with the first stage of transformation under the sanctions, which was greatly facilitated by the policy of the Central Bank

“The changes [in Russia's economy caused by the introduction of the European sanctions – Ed.] are so extensive and so deep that the adaptation of the financial and banking sectors to the new reality will take more than a year. <...> But the adaptation is already happening. <...> Even the financial indicators of the banking sector have started to change. <...> VTB also started working at a profit in July. The most important thing is that we managed to avoid the mass default of our clients. <...> Regarding rouble settlements... the day-to-day operations with credit cards and even online banking were not seriously affected, so much so that customers would not suddenly feel the changes,” Andrey Kostin, President and Chairman of the Management Board, VTB Bank.

“The initial shock has subsided. The Central Bank of Russia helped a lot. <...> I think the government of the Russian Federation made the right call to introduce a moratorium on bankruptcy and support the backbone [enterprises – Ed.],” Ilya Torosov, First Deputy Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.

“Today, the financial and banking markets work roughly the same way they did a year ago: a great appetite for bonds, a good competitive environment in lending. <...> In general, the situation is dynamic,” Mikhail Oseevskiy, President, Rostelecom.

“We learned how to implement anti-crisis policies quickly. The Government and the Central Bank were quick to take decisions, such as regulatory relief, various breaks, the moratorium on bankruptcy... preferential lending programmes, which certainly helped our industries to withstand,” Nikolai Zhuravlev, Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

The volume of banking operations in national currencies will grow

“Obviously, the world's leading currencies – primarily the dollar and the euro – have discredited themselves. Now, the whole world has seen ‘who is who’. This will certainly stimulate even non-sanctioned countries to switch to national currencies. This will stimulate the creation of economic macro-regions. At the same time, the longer this will last [the sanctions – Ed.], the greater will be the share of settlements in national currencies. We can already see in Russia that during the last six months settlement in yuan has increased from 0.4–0.5% to over 20%, while only a few months have passed,” Nikolai Zhuravlev, Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

“The dollar and the euro will no longer have such power [as before – Ed.] in the international financial system. <...> The yuan, the rouble, and other currencies will grow more and more important,” Igor Shuvalov, Chairman, VEB.RF.

PROBLEMS

Difficulty in building long-term strategies and the possibility of the Russian financial sector facing new sanctions

“Several of the largest banks and more than half of the entire banking sector are now under sanctions. [The possibility that] some banks would not be under sanctions is an unlikely scenario. It is clear that new restrictions will be introduced,” Igor Shuvalov, Chairman, VEB.RF.

“Long-term strategies are probably untimely today: it is very important to be here and now, making the right decisions. But on the whole, it seems to me that big Russian business has been seriously preparing. It was in good shape when it faced the challenges that we are working with today,” Mikhail Oseevskiy, President, Rostelecom.

“The liquidity cushion and the decisions of both the Central Bank and the government helped cope [with difficulties in the banking sector after the sanctions were imposed.] But the real transformation is still ahead. The most important problem is the long investment process, our financing of investment projects. Here we were very much dependent on Western financing, and now we need to replace it all [with domestic resources and funds – Ed.] from friendly countries,” Ilya Torosov, First Deputy Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.

SOLUTIONS

There will be changes in global market operations, interoperability mechanisms, and other properties

“Frankly speaking, in the banking community we have agreed that regardless of whether or not tough sanctions will or will not be imposed on the entire banking sector, we need to act as if they will definitely be imposed,” Igor Shuvalov, Chairman, VEB.RF.

“Our main stand is that the economy should be open. We have to gradually move away from the Central Bank's easing with a clear understanding of how we are going to move on according to Basel [the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision document with methodological recommendations in the field of banking regulation – Ed.],” Ilya Torosov, First Deputy Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.

“First of all, we need to restore confidence in the financial sector and the financial market in the nearest future. Here it is very important [to maintain – Ed.] the right rhetoric on the part of the government. <...> It is necessary to bring back the transparency in the statements from our listed companies, because the financial market is unthinkable without it. It is necessary to develop the stock market. <...> It is necessary to restart individual investment accounts, to make them a real tool for long-term investments of citizens,” Nikolai Zhuravlev, Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

For more information, visit the Roscongress Foundation’s Information and Analytical System roscongress.org.

Russia's Financial Sector Transformation: Preliminary Results

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